Did Canada Miscalculate the U.S. Trade Fight?

Canada walked away from a U.S. trade deal, and the real question is no longer why it failed. It is what comes next.

With tariffs, autos, China and the midterms in play, is Ottawa standing firm or running out of economic runway?

In this episode, we break down:

• Why U.S. Trade Representative Jameson Greer says Canada was offered an even better trade deal
• The competing Canadian and American accounts of why negotiations broke down
• Mark Carney, auto tariffs, medium and heavy-duty trucks, and the future of Canadian manufacturing
• Whether Canadian content, French-language protections and streaming discoverability were really deal breakers
• How public polling, voter turnout and political incentives could influence Canada's U.S. trade strategy
• Why the U.S. midterm elections could become a major factor in future Canada-U.S. negotiations
• Whether Canada can realistically diversify trade away from the United States toward Europe, China and other markets
• The economic risks of prolonged tariffs, industry subsidies and declining cross-border trade
• Why interprovincial trade barriers could become an even bigger issue as Canada searches for domestic growth
• Whether Canada's F-35 decision and a possible Saab Gripen production deal could become leverage in the wider relationship
• The central question facing Ottawa: if the U.S. deal is gone, what is Canada's economic plan now?

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• Hosts: Paul Micucci, Jim Lang, Liam DeBoer

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Timestamps:

• 00:00 Intro
• 02:20 Did Canadian content derail the trade talks?
• 04:28 Auto and truck tariffs become a major sticking point
• 06:04 Carney's support, polling and political incentives
• 08:17 What Canada's by-elections actually reveal
• 11:16 Canada has a government mandate, but what comes next?
• 14:13 Can Canada economically pivot away from the U.S.?
• 16:30 China, globalization and America's reindustrialization strategy
• 18:00 French-language rules and streaming discoverability
• 19:16 Could the U.S. midterms change Canada's leverage?
• 21:48 China, trade leverage and competing national interests
• 23:40 If Canada walked away, what is the backup plan?
• 25:17 Can Canada survive an economic war of attrition?
• 27:13 Finding new trade partners outside the United States
• 29:07 Why Canadians need a clearer economic strategy
• 31:19 Jameson Greer and America's PR advantage
• 33:23 Will Ottawa actually explain its plan?
• 35:12 Canada's interprovincial trade barriers
• 37:15 Canadian resistance to U.S. products and the long-term relationship
• 39:07 F-35s, Saab Gripen and Canada's next defence decision
• 40:00 Post-show: Did Canada badly miscalculate?
• 42:19 What Greer's message reveals about U.S. negotiating goals
• 44:04 Has Canada misunderstood America's position?
• 46:37 Tough rhetoric, Doug Ford and Canada's negotiating posture
• 48:38 What deal did Canada actually want?
• 50:47 The economic consequences if tariffs remain
• 53:48 A majority government, but still no clear roadmap
• 55:18 Could Canada and the U.S. ever return to the table?

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